The following is an excerpt from the articles conclusion. Iranian strategy in syria institute for the study of war. Sep 21, 2018 download the newsletter in search of an iran strategy. The grounds for that intervention, we now know, were laid at a 2015 meeting between russias foreign minister, sergey lavrov, and iranian supreme leader ayatollah khamenei. Iranian naval and maritime strategy institute for the study.
Iran to achieve a strategic depth in the levant and the. Pdf when the arab spring reached syria, its pharaoh, bashar alassad, was in no mood to give up easily. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian. Syria and around the gulf iran continues to allow al qaeda aq operatives to reside in iran, where they have been able to move money and fighters to south asia and syria. How iran plans to destroy israel the washington institute. Moreover, the future role of assad will be one of the most thorny issues to settle. Mehdi taeb, head of the supreme leader khameneis think tank, voiced a critical expression of syrias centrality in iranian strategy at that time.
Iransyria relations dates back to the independence of syria in 1946 when iran established its consulate in syria. Iran s strategic perspectives, our temporal and geographic focus is more fixed. Government forces capture more than 705 settlements and over 17,000 sq km of territory. Last year, however, israels policy shifted in response to a new iranian strategy in syria. As assad was losing ground from 2011 to october 20, iran became heavily involved in maintaining the current regime in power. Other areas with a large iranian military presence include alsafira largest iranian base in northern syria, alzahraa, nubl, sayyeda zaynab, yalda, salma, tal aleis, and the eastern region of homs. Syrias alliance with iran this is the fifth in a series of usipeace briefings on syria published by the institutes center for conflict analysis and prevention.
Iran sees syria as the iranian entra nce to the arab world. Civil war in syria, iran and iranian strategy in syrian. This decoupling is unlikely for now, but it is possible with time as assad regains his control over syria and seeks independence from his iranian overlord. What is paramount for tehran is that syria remains an iranian strategic resistance ally and a waystation to hizb allah in lebanon. Chairman, fdds center on military and political power senior fellow, hoover institution. And how has iranian strategy evolved over the course of the war. Irans political leadership has also been a vocal supporter of the assads government in syria, given. Irans role in syria is part of a broader campaign to rebuild the broken regional order on its own terms. Its core is a piece by israeli security affairs analyst and journalist yaakov lappin on the current state of the iranianisraeli confrontation. But since it has not undertaken diplomatic engagement on any of its twelve demands on. The role of iranian security forces in the syrian bloodshed.
Download the newsletter in search of an iran strategy. In contrast, israels campaign between the wars the hebrew acronym is mabam against iran and iranianbacked groups in syria has been one of the most successful military efforts to push back against iran in the gray zone. For its own part, iran is syrias only regional ally and an escape valve for pressure applied by. Cidob russia, iran and turkey, a common strategy in syria. None of the rockets hit any targets and israeli aircraft responded by extensively hitting both syrian and iranian military sites in syria. Iran is doing in syria, iraq, lebanon, yemen, and elsewhere. This occasional paper is an attempt to assess irans key foreign policy objectives to better understand iranian interests across the region, and thereby identify the strengths and weaknesses of irans strategy. As per its national military strategy, and restrained by its limited highend conventional capabilities, tehran is projecting force into syria by training, arming, and advising local and foreign shia militias which act as lightinfantry forces. Recent developments confirm that iran is committed to this ambition, has a strategy to realize this outcome, and is making significant progress towards it. Since the beginning of the civil war in syria in 2012, iran has had a growing presence in the country. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian conflict.
Issue brief the evolving iranian strategy in syria. Iransyria relations improved after the iranian revolution in 1979. Its mission is to be an analytical, researchled global forum for informing, influencing and. Among the 500,000 syrians that have been killed, nearly 250,000 have been civilians, including over 27,000 children and 25,000 women. Iran has been a critical player in the syrian war since 2011, crafting a complex foreign policy and military strategy to preserve its syrian ally. Similar to other iranian strategic outposts in countries undergoing tumultsuch as iraq and afghanistanit is the elite wing of the islamic revolutionary guard corps irgc, known as the qods force, that oversees tehrans activities in syrianot the iranian foreign ministry. Hezbollah today possesses an estimated,000 rockets and shortrange missiles, and the houthis have fired over 250 projectiles into saudi arabia since 2015. Over the past 18 months, the israeli air force iaf struck no fewer 200 targets across syria in response to irans drive to turn syria into a second lebanon, and create a new iranianrun army there. Breaking down iran and russias military strategy in syria. Irans unwavering support to assads syria combating. Iran would not be able to maintain its current level. Iranled shia militia groups to syriaunder the command of the quds. Iranian activity in syria, however, has caused direct and enormous gains. Aug 09, 2019 israels shadow war in syria is based on the strategic objective of convincing the islamic republic that its investment in a war machine is going to waste.
The iranian land corridor to the mediterranean, david adesnik and behnam ben taleblu shed fresh light and understanding on irans sustained campaign to pursue hegemonic influence in the middle east, export its revolutionary ideology, and threaten israel and the west. General hussain salam stated that the strategy pursue d by the united states of am erica is. Iran and syria is thus a key vulnerability for iranian strategy in syria. This article assesses irans strategy in dealing with the threat of the islamic state in iraq and syria isis. Assad regime present in syria is extremely important for both iran and hizballah because syria has been the center state that has facilitated the growth of hizballah and their communication with iran. Any discussion of us strategy toward syria must first begin with the horrific statistics. Iran s hedging strategy aims to ensure, however, that it can continue to pursue its vital interests if and when the regime collapses, using parts of syria as a base as long as the syrian opposition fails to establish full control over all of syrian territory. Iran began its military involvement in syria in 2011, at the outbreak of the civil war.
Both the united states and iran need to formulate better strategies for engaging with one another. In the wake of recent israeli airstrikes against the t4 airbase in syria and the shooting down of an israeli f16 fighter in february, iranianisraeli tensions have been escalating. However, the relations between the participants are very selective and asymmetrical, their real interests differ and there is no reliance among them. Hizbullahs inclusion in the armed struggle in syria was intended, primarily, to serve the iranian strategy, which has been setting new goals apart from military assistance to the syrian regime. The displacement of 12 million syrians half externallyhas. Jun 18, 2019 chairman, fdds center on military and political power senior fellow, hoover institution. Part of foreign involvement in the syrian civil war and the iransaudi arabia proxy conflict. A logic all its own russian operational art in the syrian campaign, the author describes the unique logic of russian military thought and how russia successfully implemented operational art during its campaign in syria. Jul 09, 2015 regional implications of a nuclear agreement with iran. Although russia has supported the bashar alassad government through its air force, it has been iran and the resistance axis that has carried out most of the. Syria part of aggressive iranian strategy the national. Developments on the overlapping battlefields of the counterisis and antiassad campaigns in syria have. Irans syria policy in the wake of the arab springs universite libre. President bashar alassad seize the strategic town of qusair and, together with.
Michael segall amid the intensifying crisis in syria, which in recent weeks has seen massacres of the civilian population in various parts of the country, iranian military, propaganda, and. In conclusion, even considering the escalation of israeli attacks in syria, the request for military budget increases for the israel defense force idf, the menacing rhetoric employed by netanyahu and liberman, and the heated exchanges and mutual threats issued by hezbollah and israel, we are still witnessing a maintenance of a certain status quo. Dec 14, 2017 israels position on the syrian conflict. This article argues that the logic of deterrence has been fundamental not just for shaping the contours of iransyria relations since the islamic revolution of 1979, but also for determining the overall trajectory of iranian strategy in the syrian war. In january 2019, the israel defense forces confirmed that it had carried out strikes against iranian military targets in syria several hours after a rocket was intercepted over the golan heights.
It examines the implications of the rise of isis in irans immediate neighbourhood for tehrans policies in syria and iraq and investigates how each of these countries affects iranian national interests. The islamic republic of iran has conducted an extensive, expensive, and integrated effort to keep president bashar alassad in power as long as possible while setting conditions to retain its ability to use syrian territory and assets. Iran is changing its strategy in turn, as lappin explains. Csis has incorporated the multivolume series into a digitallyformatted 936 page ebook, divided into two parts. Iranian advisors, have now assumed a greater role in facilitating regime efforts. Early estimates of iranian troops in syria numbered around 10,000, including members of the iranian army as well as the iranian revolutionary guard corps irgc. Irans foreign policy principles irans strategy in its hostile surrounding region has been a matter of controversy over the past decades. This ebook provides the most comprehensive, uptodate, and impartial analysis of us and iranian strategic competition available at the unclassified level, and covers every aspect of us and iranian competition on a global basis. Russian military strategy, operational tactics and objective in syria. This week, for example, iranian vice president eshaq jahangiri was in syria, where he signed a number of economic agreements and met with assad. Accordingly, the principal basis of irans strategy to combat the is was to cut this link. Dec 14, 2017 irans postisis regional strategy thursday, december 14, 2017 download pdf in english in a book titled, letter of the fish, by gulali babayi, slain iranian revolutionary guards commander major general hussein hamadani explains the pretexts behind the iranian decision to intervene in syria. A lack of trust between the nations makes negotiating compromises exceedingly difficult. Most of hezbollahs weapons are reportedly transshipped through syria, and syria provides a proiranian base in the arab heartland that iran seeks to further its own campaign of regional influence.
Iran confirms its military strategy is to wipe israel off the. Journal of uschina public administration, march 2017, vol. Countering iran in the gray zone center for a new american. Since the start of the syrian civil war in 2011, and especially since early 2017, israel has conducted more. Recognize the geopolitical significance of syrias humanitarian tragedy. Postrevolution iran represented an opportunity for syrian president hafez alassad to find a new counterweight to israel and iraq, syrias regional foes. Russia and iran, the two main military allies and enablers of the syrian regime, are engaged. Sep 27, 2018 russia and iran are allies in syria not out of mutual sympathy, but for pragmatic reasons. Iranian leaders were instrumental in convincing vladimir putin to send his air force to syria to support bashar alassad in september 2015, and the two countries cooperate within syria to this day. Artists in lebanon are pushing back against extremism through an increasingly popular rap movement that tackles radicalism and social challenges. Major government strategic gains in latakia, palmyra, raqqa,damascus, and aleppo fronts.
For that reason, many iranians who opposed their own government cheered the antiassad protests that broke out in early 2011 and welcomed the prospect of bashar al. These developments signal a larger strategic shift on the part of irans military leadership toward a. Until the iranian revolution in 1979 and dethronement of the shah in iran, especially since the establishment of a baathist regime in iraq which was considered as an enemy by both iran and syria, the two countries had favorable. A strategy for ending the syrian civil ar 2 syrias zones of control any attempt to deescalate the syrian war and reach a political settlement must begin with an acknowledgement of changing dynamics on the ground. Crisis in syria jerusalem center for public affairs. Irans postisis regional strategy turkish policy quarterly. The islamic republic regards its commitment to the destruction of israel as a longterm project that would require major shifts in the regional political landscape. Opposition gains in syria have interdicted many ground resupply routes between baghdad and damascus, and the relative paucity of iranian portvisits in syria suggests that irans sealanes to syria are more symbolic than practical. Israels strategy in the evolving syrian conflict al. Iranian regimes strategy in syria goes beyond saving the. The syrian arena has a part to play in this regional strategy.
Far less has explored why iran is active in these countries. Since the beginning of the conflict, irans primary objective was to defend assad. The islamic republic of iran and the syrian arab republic are close strategic allies, and iran. Mar 20, 2018 recognize the geopolitical significance of syrias humanitarian tragedy.
Ranj alaaldin, jason fritz, steven heydemann, bruce jones, and michael ohanlon propose a shift in u. It may appear a bit unorthodox, but the strategy ultimately helped the syrian military maintain a presence in eastern syria, where the u. The authors outline iran s decisionmaking calculus and divide the countrys strategy on syria after the arab spring into four primary phases. Data i have collected from persian online sources show at least 349 iranian nationals. The linked russian politicalmilitary initiative in syria with a bombing campaign from 30 september, support of iranianhezbollahsyrian military ground offensives, and convening of international conferences to try and secure the assad regime has changed the dynamics of the 56month syrian conflict. Temporally, our concentration is on events of the last few years and especially since the emergence of the. Iran tensions have heightened significantly, and evolved into conflict after u.
The sanctions on iran severely undermine funding sources. Syrias strategic alliance with egypt ended around the same time due to egypts treaty with israel. These iranian military units are working with the syrian arab army saa in their current battle against the islamic state isisisilisdaesh. Iranian casualties in syria and the strategic logic of. During the height of is power, controlling the eastern areas of syria in deir ezzor and the province of anbar in western iraq allowed the terrorists to move freely on both sides of the iraqisyrian border. Whether acting independently, supporting other proregime actors, or backing proxy militias, analyzing iranian military activityor lack thereof is key to piecing together its larger strategy in syria and predicting the future of this complicated conflict. Especially the presence of shiite militias orchestrated by tehran was in the center of western, arab and of course israeli critique. Since the start of the syrian civil war in 2011, and especially since early 2017, israel has conducted more than 200 airstrikes inside syria against more than 1,000. Iran has so far chosen to weather the strikes and shift tactics without abandoning its syria project. Irans strategy in the levant middle east strategy at. Six components of a syria strategy carnegie endowment for.
Regional implications of a nuclear agreement with iran. Syrian president bashar alassad were, from the very beginning, denounced as. The longterm goal would be to drive a wedge between syria and iran, making it clear that syria will pay a price when iran is too aggressive there. Therefore, syrias current partition into areas held by the regime, the rebels, and the islamic state is likely to persist for a long time to come. The agreements, 11 in number, together offer a road map for longterm strategic economic cooperation between iran and syria. Understanding irans role in the syrian conflict rusi. A logic all its own russian operational art in the syrian. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis.
Iranian leadership considers the persian gulf and much of central asia to be a near abroad where iranian culture and interests should have significant influence. Under the assad familys rule, syria had been a crucial ally to the islamic republic and the countrys only real arab partner. A senior iranian general confirmed the islamic republics military strategy is to wipe israel off the map. The iranian military has been involved in the syrian conflict both directly and through proxy militias since 20.
Iranian involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Mar 08, 2019 in 2015, russia formally entered the syrian conflict, becoming the assad regimes second sponsor, alongside iran. The air line of communication between iran and syria is thus a key vulnerability for iranian strategy in syria. To prevent an iranian nuclear weapon to prevent an iranian nuclear weapon the trump administrations iran strategy is to assert maximum economic, political and military pressure to change irans behavior and threaten, if not cause, collapse of the regime.
Geographically, we look at how iran s strategy plays out west and south of iran, primarily in the persian gulf including iraq and yemen and the levant. Since the outbreak of the syrian civil war in 2011, the iranian regime has spent considerable energy capitalizing on chaos in syria to establish transit. In discussions of irans regional missile proliferation, lebanese hezbollah and yemens houthi rebels tend to dominate the conversation. In recent years iran s activities in syria have been severely criticised. Either way, the lataika campaign is a prime example of the limits of irans operational strategy.
Russia, iran and turkey need each other due to their mutual areas of influence in syria. Six components of a syria strategy carnegie endowment. It views syria as a front line state whose collapse would invite hardline sunni islamist threats to shiite iran s borders. The department of defense has issued an unusually detailed dod budget request for iraq and syria entitled the justification for fy 2018 overseas contingency operations oco counterisis train and equip fund ctef. Or, if the us economic war on iran crosses certain boundaries such as blockading iranian tankers from sailing, or putting a full stranglehold on the iranian economy. An article in fars news agency says russia has reached out to all key internal and external stakeholders in the syrian conflict to shape up the future of the country, but it cannot ignore irans role and interest in syria. Syria changed the iranian way of war foreign affairs. To be clear, the aim of this geopolitical strategy is not to provoke a war with the us or israel it is to deter one. The evolution of deterrence iran has been a critical player in the syrian war since 2011, crafting a complex foreign policy. The iranian land corridor to the mediterranean, david adesnik and behnam ben taleblu shed fresh light and understanding on irans sustained campaign to pursue hegemonic influence in the middle east, export its revolutionary ideology, and threaten israel. Jun 20, 2012 amid the intensifying crisis in syria, which in recent weeks has seen massacres of the civilian population in various parts of the country, iranian military, propaganda, and economic assistance keeps flowing in, and its aim is to help president bashar alassad survive. The first is that while iranian strategy is antiamerican, antistatus quo, antisemitic, aggressive and expansionist, it is not reckless.
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